Portfolio appraisal · Draft 2
Livelihood programmes and recruitment in the Sahel
Five programmes, appraised against the evidence before the March board: what the studies support, where the claims outrun them, and what to fund next.
● Full text read◐ Abstract only↗ Web source, treat with caution
Two programmes rest on strong evidence; two claim more than any study supports.
Of the five livelihood programmes, two rest on strong evidence for their stated aim and one on moderate evidence. Two claim an effect on recruitment that no study in this project supports.
Income alone rarely moves recruitment into armed groups. Support that reaches the young people armed groups are already approaching has the strongest record.
What the evidence supports
Income alone rarely moves recruitment into armed groups ●1 ◐2. Support that reaches young people already approached by armed groups, and pairs income with a stake in local decisions, has the strongest record ●3.
Conflict-resolution training has the most rigorous recent evidence in the region, from a 2026 cluster trial in Niger ●4.
Each estimate is drawn with its source’s tier. Illustrative values
The five programmes
Programmes A and C target the right people and measure the right outcome. Programme B measures jobs created, and would need a recruitment measure to support its claim. Programmes D and E are cash-for-work schemes with no violence outcome: fund them for income, which they deliver, and not for peace, which they do not measure.
| Programme | Who it reaches | What it measures | Evidence | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Young men already approached by armed groups | Recruitment | Strong | Keep |
| B | Unemployed young people | Jobs created | Moderate | Add a recruitment measure |
| C | Returnees and their families | Recruitment and local trust | Strong | Keep |
| D | Households, cash for work | Income | None on violence | Fund for income |
| E | Women’s savings groups | Income | None on violence | Fund for income |
Gaps worth funding
No study in this project follows participants for more than three years, and none covers women recruited into armed groups. Either would be a contribution to the field as well as to the portfolio.
Sources
- 1 ●Berman, E., Callen, M., Felter, J. H. and Shapiro, J. N. (2011). Do Working Men Rebel? Insurgency and Unemployment in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Philippines. Journal of Conflict Resolution. Full text read.
- 2 ◐Mercy Corps (2015). Youth and Consequences: Unemployment, Injustice and Violence. Abstract only.
- 3 ●Blattman, C. and Annan, J. (2016). Can Employment Reduce Lawlessness and Rebellion? A Field Experiment with High-Risk Men in a Fragile State. American Political Science Review. Full text read.
- 4 ●Olawole, Ribar, Sheely et al. (2026). Equipped for Peace: Conflict Resolution Training and Youth Violence. Full text read.
Made in Peace Intel from the project’s context and the library. Each citation carries its source’s tier: whether the full text was read, only its abstract, or a web page.