Portfolio appraisal · Board, March 2027

Livelihood programmes and recruitment in the Sahel

What the evidence supports, where the claims outrun it, and what to fund next.

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02 · The evidence

What the studies support

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The finding

Income alone rarely moves recruitment. Support that reaches the young people armed groups are already approaching does.

Berman et al. 2011 ●1 · Mercy Corps 2015 ◐2 · Blattman and Annan 2016 ●3

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Three things to take into the room

Fund the people, then measure the outcome

Target

Programmes that reach young people already approached by armed groups have the strongest record ●3.

Measure

A programme that counts jobs cannot claim an effect on recruitment; ask for the measure before renewal.

Fund the gaps

No study follows participants past three years, and none covers women recruited into armed groups.

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The five programmes

Two programmes move intentions; pooled, the effect is small but real

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Recommendation

Keep A and C. Ask B, D and E for a recruitment measure before renewal.

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